American and European diplomats have drafted two documents outlining security guarantees for Ukraine as part of a broader peace plan, according to The New York Times citing officials familiar with the proposals.
The documents were developed during more than eight hours of intensive discussions with President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Ukrainian representatives in Berlin on Sunday and Monday, the publication reports. Leaders and national security officials from about a dozen European countries participated, including France, Germany, Italy, and Britain.
"We are seeing real and concrete progress," said Ursula von der Leyen, president of the European Commission. "That progress is made possible thanks to the alignment between Ukraine, Europe and the United States."
The first document outlines broad principles that amount to a commitment similar to NATO's Article 5 guarantee, according to two American officials and several European diplomats cited by NYT. Under Article 5, all member nations pledge to come to the aid of any nation that is attacked.
The second document, which American officials described as a "mil-to-mil operating document," provides detailed instructions on how American and European forces would work with Ukraine's military to prevent Russia from attempting to seize Ukrainian territory in the future.
"One American official, who spoke to reporters on the condition of anonymity, said that the document was 'very specific' about how to deter further incursions and punish Russia if they occur," NYT reports.
Neither document has been made public.
Military force of 800,000 troopsThe primary goal is to bring Ukraine's military to a "peacetime level" of 800,000 troops with modern training and equipment to serve as a deterrent against Russia, according to the publication. Ukraine has grown its army to nearly 900,000 during the war. For comparison, Germany's army has about 180,000 armed troops.
Building and maintaining such a force would require "sustained and significant support" for Ukraine, stated a joint declaration by leaders of 10 European nations and top European Union officials.
The document also details a Europe-led military force that would operate inside Ukraine to secure airspace and maritime zones. Officials declined to specify which countries would station troops in Ukraine, but Zelenskyy said on 16 December that several have privately pledged to do so.
"Each country already understands its role or its volume of supplies," Zelenskyy said during a news conference with Prime Minister Dick Schoof of the Netherlands in The Hague. "Some are ready to provide only intelligence, others are ready to provide troops in Ukraine — boots on the ground. We have this in the document."
These troops are expected to be based in western Ukraine, away from any cease-fire line, to serve as another level of deterrence against future Russian aggression, NYT reports.
French and British diplomats are managing the proposal to deploy European forces as part of a group of about 30 countries they call the "Coalition of the Willing."
US intelligence and monitoringPresident Trump has repeatedly ruled out sending American troops to Ukraine. Instead, the operational document provides details on how the United States would use its intelligence systems to monitor the cease-fire and detect Russian activity aimed at re-entering the rest of Ukraine, officials told NYT.
Monday's statement from European leaders said the United States would lead a "cease-fire monitoring and verification mechanism with international participation to provide early warning of any future attack."
The document also details how the US would help detect Russian attempts to create "false flag" operations that might give Moscow a pretense to resume hostilities, NYT reports. Officials have said for years that this is a common Russian tactic.
Legal binding and ratificationAmerican and European officials said the new security guarantee would be legally binding, subject to each country's procedures. US officials said that Trump had agreed to submit the security guarantees to the Senate, where treaties are typically ratified, though they did not make clear whether they would formally submit the guarantees as a treaty.
One of Zelenskyy's chief concerns has been the fear that future security guarantees would fail, much like the 1994 Budapest Memorandum. In that agreement, Ukraine gave up nuclear weapons it inherited from the Soviet Union in return for security assurances. Russia violated the agreement in 2014 and again in 2022.
Territorial disputes remainThe security documents are designed to serve as the cornerstone of a broader agreement aimed at reaching a cease-fire to end the nearly four-year conflict. They are also intended to persuade Ukraine to concede territory in a peace deal and give up on formal NATO membership, NYT reports.
A broad cease-fire appears to remain out of reach, in part because Russia is not a party to these negotiations. Russian deputy foreign minister Sergei Ryabkov said Tuesday that his government demands Ukraine hand over the part of Donbas that Russia has not conquered and will not accept the presence of NATO-country troops in Ukraine.
US officials said Monday that the territorial issue remains a roadblock but expressed confidence that Putin would eventually accept the presence of European forces in Ukraine not operating under the NATO banner.
"It sounded very promising, compared to the previous declarations, that the Americans are ready to give guarantees — but it would be an exaggeration if I said that we know everything about the concrete details," said Donald Tusk, the prime minister of Poland.
Zelenskyy said early on 16 December that the documents would be finalized in the coming days and that he expected American officials to convey them to Russia and meet with Ukrainian negotiators after that, perhaps this weekend.
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