ISW: Russia’s top general promises fast victory — but even his boasts prove the opposite

2025-12-18 10:00 6 min

Russia’s latest battlefield boasts reveal more about its slow progress than it may want to admit, according to the Institute for the Study of War. On 17 December, Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov claimed that capturing Ukraine’s heavily fortified Fortress Belt would allow Russia to “quickly” seize the rest of Donetsk Oblast — yet his own numbers suggest years of fighting ahead.

Moreover, his own comments show that Russia is optimizing itself for positional warfare in Ukraine instead of the mechanized maneuver.

Kremlin claims of fast victory contradict battlefield reality

In his remarks at an expanded Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) board meeting, Belousov cited the seizure of several small and mid-sized settlements as proof of momentum, ISW says. He named locations such as Chasiv Yar, Kurakhove, and Mala Tokmachka, and also claimed the capture of Siversk and Pokrovsk — though ISW noted it has not observed evidence confirming those two. Belousov said Russian forces are also trying to take Huliaipole and Lyman.

He stated that fighting is ongoing within Kostiantynivka, which he described as the “key” to further advances into Druzhkivka, Kramatorsk, and Sloviansk. These cities make up the so-called Fortress Belt — a network of major urban strongholds that serve as Ukraine’s core defensive line in Donetsk Oblast. However, Russian troops have been trying to seize Pokrovsk alone for nearly 140 days, according to ISW.

Belousov attempted to present the capture of smaller settlements as evidence that larger cities could fall just as quickly. But the disparity is stark: Kurakhove had a pre-war population of just 5,000, while Sloviansk was home to 105,000. Pokrovsk covers about 23 square kilometers; Kramatorsk nearly 48. The scale difference undercuts claims of a rapid Russian advance. Explore further ISW: Kremlin denies trouble in Kupiansk — even Russian milbloggers say otherwise (MAPS) Inflated numbers and slow gains

ISW noted that Belousov said Russian forces seized 6,000 square kilometers along the frontline in 2025 — territory smaller than the US state of Delaware and representing less than 1% of Ukraine. ISW assessed that the actual figure is closer to 4,699 square kilometers, only slightly larger than Rhode Island.

Even Belousov’s exaggerated data supports ISW’s assessment that it would "take Russian forces two or more years to seize the remainder of Donetsk Oblast at great cost."

Russia prepares for years of positional warfare

Belousov’s comments further reveal that Russia is adapting for positional warfare — not for rapid, mechanized breakthroughs. He laid out a list of battlefield adjustments that include using drones for reconnaissance and targeting, relying on ATVs and motorcycles to cross drone-patrolled “kill zones,” and expanding trench-based electronic warfare systems.

Explore further ISW: Russia’s army can’t sustain multi-pronged offensives due to manpower and equipment strain

ISW noted that these adaptations confirm a Russian military strategy focused on slow, grinding advances. Belousov's comments show that the Russian Ministry of Defense does not expect a swift shift in the nature of the war but is preparing to continue with static warfare tactics. While this method may bring incremental territorial gains, it "will not allow Russian forces to rapidly collapse Ukrainian defenses in the short- to medium-term," according to the think tank.

Manpower questions masked by recruitment claims

Belousov also tried to project confidence in Russia’s force generation by stating that 410,000 people signed contracts with the Russian MoD in 2025 — around 32,800 per month. But Ukrainian General Staff data indicates Russia lost an average of 34,600 troops monthly between January and November. This suggests that even if Belousov’s figures were accurate, they would barely keep pace with the attrition.

His claim is likely overstated. Russian opposition media investigations into government budget data on recruitment payouts cast doubt on those numbers. Meanwhile, the Kremlin’s continued efforts to mobilize reservists point to persistent manpower shortages.

“ISW continues to assess that the Kremlin’s efforts to deploy reservists to Ukraine are a domestically risky policy [...] the Kremlin would likely not pursue this force generation method unless necessary,” the think tank wrote, adding that "Belousov is likely inflating the recruitment numbers to quell domestic worries about compulsory reserve mobilization."